Shapps and Afolami to go? MP polls predict Tory defeat

According UK Polling Report, a non-partisan and data-driven political website, Labour will cruise to victory with a 359-seat, 46.3 per cent majority, beating the Tories who are predicted to secure just 197 seats, or 27.8 per cent of the vote.

Polls are also predicting a number of our MPs will lose their seats too, with the election being held no later than January 24, 2025.

Grant Shapps - Welwyn Hatfield

Predictions for Welwyn Hatfield MP Grant Shapps. (Image: Newsquest)

Polls are prediciting Conservative Grant Shapps will lose his seat as Welwyn Hatfield MP, with Labour candidate Andrew Lewin set to win at the polls with 45.8 per cent of the votes.

Mr Shapps would get 36.8 per cent of votes, down from the 52.63 per cent from the last election.

Bim Afolami - Hitchin and Harpenden

As things stand, Bim Afolami looks set to lose his seat as Tory MP for Hitchin and Harpenden, but by the tightest of margins.

Predictions for Hitchin & Harpenden MP Bim Afolami. (Image: Newsquest)

The Liberal Democrats are currently predicted to gain the seat with 32.2 per cent of the votes, but Mr Afolami and Labour are close behind with 31.3 per cent and 31.1 per cent respectively.

Changes to constituency boundaries will also come into effect at the next election, with Hitchin becoming a new constituency that also includes Arlesey, Shefford and Stotfold, while Harpenden will become part of a constituency with Berkhamsted.

The battle for Hitchin and Harpenden will certainly be one to keep an eye on.

Stephen McPartland - Stevenage

Mr McPartland has already announced that he will not be standing at the next election, but Labour already look set for a comfortable victory over the Conservatives.

Predictions for Stevenage. (Image: Newsquest)

Kevin Bonavia is predicted to take 49.4 per cent of the votes for the red party, with the Tories getting 37.3 per cent, down from 53.12 per cent at the last general election.

Sir Mike Penning - Hemel Hempstead

Another MP stepping aside is Hemel Hempstead's Conservative MP Sir Mike Penning.

And much like in Stevenage, Labour look set to gain the seat from the Tories in a close battle, winning 42.3 per cent of the votes compared to 40.7 per cent.

Daisy Cooper - St Albans

Liberal Democrat Daisy Cooper is predicted to comfortably keep her seat as MP for St Albans, gaining 46.9 per cent of the votes.

Predictions for St Albans MP Daisy Cooper. (Image: Newsquest)

The Conservatives come next with 23.4 per cent, followed by Labour with 22.9 per cent and then the Green Party with 4.8 per cent.

Sir Oliver Heald - North East Hertfordshire

A close battle in North East Hertfordshire could be on the cards, with just 2.9 per cent between the Conservatives and Labour.

Predictions for North East Herts MP Sir Oliver Heald. (Image: Newsquest)

Should things go as predicted, it will be the blue side that holds the seat, with Sir Oliver Heald getting 40.8 per cent of the votes compared to 37.9 per cent for Labour.

Oliver Dowden - Hertsmere

Hertsmere's Conservative MP Oliver Dowden is predicted to hold his seat in a comfortable victory, earning 46.8 per cent of the votes.

Labour are set to come second with 35.9 per cent.

Predictions for Hertsmere MP Oliver Dowden. (Image: Newsquest)

Nadine Dorries - Mid Bedfordshire

Despite Nadine Dorries stepping aside as Mid Bedfordshire MP, the Conservatives are expected to hold onto the seat with 44 per cent of the votes.

Labour are predicted to win 35.9 per cent, followed by the Lib Dems with 9.4 per cent.

Predictions for Mid Bedfordshire. (Image: Newsquest)

Richard Fuller - North East Bedfordshire

Another Conservative hold comes in North East Bedfordshire, with MP Richard Fuller set to secure 43.3 per cent and Labour behind on 36 per cent.

The Lib Dems come next with 9.1 per cent, followed by the Green Party with 6 per cent.

Predictions for North East Beds MP Richard Fuller. (Image: Newsquest)